Italy vs Estonia: prediction & betting odds 5 September 2025

The Matchday 5 clash in the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers between Italy and Estonia will take place on September 5 at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo. Italy vs. Estonia: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Italy

After suffering a 0-3 defeat away to Norway in the last round, the Italians bounced back with a 2-0 home victory over Moldova. This win ended a four-match winless streak in World Cup qualifiers (2 draws, 2 losses). Notably, the team managed to score for the first time in four previous qualifying matches. Moreover, it was only the second time in the last eight World Cup qualification games that Italy scored more than once. In Group I, Italy currently occupies third place.

Gennaro Gattuso has replaced Luciano Spalletti as the new head coach.

• At least one opponent failed to score in 6 of Italy's last 7 World Cup qualifiers.
• No more than two goals have been scored in 8 of Italy's last 9 home World Cup qualification matches.
• The team has opened the scoring in 8 of their last 11 home games in this tournament.

Predicted lineup for Italy (4-5-1)

Gianluigi Donnarumma – Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Federico Dimarco – Nicolo Barella, Matteo Politano, Sandro Tonali, Mattia Zaccagni, Moise Kean – Matteo Retegui.

Defender Alessandro Florenzi has retired from international football. Forward Gianluca Scamacca will miss both matches due to injury.

Estonia

Jürgen Henn's side suffered a 0-1 home defeat to Norway in the last round. This loss marked the team's third in the current qualifying cycle and sixth in their last seven matches in this tournament (1 win). Additionally, Estonia's three-match scoring streak in World Cup qualifiers came to an end. The team has conceded in seven consecutive World Cup qualifiers. With three points, Estonia is in fourth place in the group standings.

• In 5 of their last 6 World Cup qualifiers, Estonia has conceded at least two goals.
• The team has not won in 5 of their last 6 away World Cup qualification matches (1 draw, 4 losses).
• Estonia has scored in 5 of their last 7 away games in this tournament.

Predicted lineup for Estonia (4-5-1)

Karl Hein – Michael Lilander, Maksim Paskotsi, Märten Kuusk, Joonas Tamm – Markus Poom, Rocco Robert Shein, Konstantin Vassiljev, Mattias Käit, Henri Anier – Rauno Sappinen.

Referee

João Pinheiro (Portugal)

Matches – 17 (International matches, 2024/25 - 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 51;

Average yellow cards per match – 3;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 22;

Penalties – 24%.

Italy vs. Estonia: Match Prediction

Italy needed a shake-up after disappointing results in official matches. The local federation decided to replace Luciano Spalletti, who secured a 2-0 victory over modest Moldova in his last match as head coach. Gennaro Gattuso, who has taken over, will need time to instill his ideas into the team. Nevertheless, Italy should be able to overcome their upcoming opponents, given the significant difference in class between the teams.

Estonia's main task will be to prevent the hosts from scoring. The Baltic side has failed to keep a clean sheet in seven consecutive World Cup qualifiers, but they have not suffered major defensive collapses, conceding no more than three goals in their last nine matches in this tournament. It's difficult to expect a goal frenzy from Italy, who have not scored more than twice in 8 of their last 9 home World Cup qualification matches. Now, with a coach who does not favor attacking play, this trend is likely to continue.

I believe the hosts will secure three points in a low-scoring match. My prediction: Italy to win and Total under 4.5 goals